The likelihood of the Guardians making the playoffs stands at a mere 1.6%, despite having a win rate of .475 until September 7, 2023. So far, they have secured 67 victories but suffered 74 losses.
Even though they are currently second in the AL Central rankings, they lag behind by 10 in the wins and losses column for the Wild Card spot.
Their position in the AL Wild Card is not favorable, and only 21 games remain in this regular season.
The Cleveland Guardians, a Major League Baseball team from Cleveland, Ohio, are part of the American League Central Division.
They were one of the original AL charter franchises and were previously known as the Cleveland Indians until a recent decision to rename the team to Guardians.
In the 123 seasons of MLB history, Cleveland has clinched the World Series title twice. However, they presently hold the undesirable record of the longest ongoing World Series drought, which stands at 75 years since their last triumph in 1948.
Additionally, the Tribe has managed to win a total of six American League Championships and 16 Central Division titles throughout their history.
Can The Guardians Still Make It To The Playoffs?
The playoff prospects for the Guardians in 2023 are not looking good, with only 21 matches left until the season ends. According to Fangraph, there’s just a 2% chance of the Guardians winning their division.
As of September 7, they are 6 games behind in their Division, having won 67 games and lost 73. Although there’s still a glimmer of hope for winning the division, their odds of getting a wild card berth are even lower.
Each year, only 12 MLB teams, six from both the American and National leagues, can secure a spot in the playoffs by either winning their division or securing a Wild Card slot. These are the teams with the best records for the regular season.
Currently, the Guardians are 7th on the AL Wild Card list, with a winning percentage of only .479. They are 10 games away from the last spot in the WC Playoff berth.
However, the Wahoos can change their fate in the upcoming 21 games if they manage to secure more victories than the Twins by October 1.
Their immediate goal should be to build momentum in the ongoing 4-game series against the Angels.
The season started on a sour note for the Tribe, with a loss to the Mariners on March 30, 2023. However, they managed to bounce back with their longest winning streak of the season in the following four days.
This achievement was replicated three times, with multiple three-win streaks over the past 140 games.
At the All-Star break, their record was evenly balanced at 45-45, and they managed to keep it relatively stable after the MidSummer Classic.
However, starting August 1, the number of losses began to increase, causing their win rate to drop below .500.
Despite their efforts, they haven’t been able to narrow the gap, with 73 losses and only 67 wins so far. For the Wahoos to clinch the division, they would need to significantly improve their winning percentage in the remaining 21 games.
To defeat the Twins, a higher win rate is essential, and currently, the Guardians trail by a .033 margin. After the series with the LA Angels, there will be 19 more games to determine their playoff eligibility.
After the final game against the Angels on September 10, the Tribes will play three away games against the San Francisco Giants until September 13.
Then, they will host three home games against the Rangers from September 15 to 17, followed by three matches against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium.
Upon returning to Cleveland on September 21, they will play four games against the Orioles, followed by two games against the Reds until September 27.
The last series of the regular season will be three games against the Detroit Tigers, ending on October 1, 2023.
Cleveland Guardians Last Played Playoffs
The Cleveland Guardians made it to the playoffs in 2022 by securing the top spot in the AL Central Division, finishing with a record of 92 wins and 70 losses.
This marked the 16th time the team had made it to the playoffs in the 123 seasons of Major League Baseball (MLB) since 1901.
In the previous year, the team, then known as the Wahoos, won the playoff contention by beating the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Wild Card.
During the last season, the Tribe achieved a seven-game winning streak and had two consecutive wins in six games, which was the highest.
However, a loss against the Rays after two extra innings on September 27, 2022, prevented them from achieving an 11-game winning streak.
Although they secured a spot in the playoffs, they were defeated by the New York Yankees in the Divisional Series, which halted their progress to the American League Championship that year. Since their last ALCS victory in 2016, they have not been able to make it to the World Series.
The Guardians’ first-ever playoff berth was in 1920, a time when there were no divisions in the American and National Leagues of MLB.
That year, they managed to win all the postseason berths and advanced to their first World Series.
After that initial achievement, the team secured their second playoff qualification in 1948 and their third in 1954, before the division system was introduced.
Between 1995 and 1999, they managed to make five consecutive postseason appearances.
Moreover, the team also qualified for the playoffs in three consecutive years from the 2015 to 2017 MLB seasons.
Cleveland Guardians Magic Number 2023
The Cleveland Guardians have a crucial number, 34, to focus on for securing a position in the AL Central Division. This figure is significant as it indicates their potential elimination.
The concept of a magic number involves the total victories needed by a team, or the total defeats required by the rival teams, to secure a division. This is a vital calculation for understanding the probabilities of making it to the playoffs.
In the case of Cleveland, the 34 signifies the necessary wins they must achieve before the season concludes. To secure a spot in the playoffs, this number needs to be reduced to zero. This can happen with each win by the team or each loss by the opponent.
With only 21 games left, the Guardians will have to rely on the Minnesota Twins losing at least 14 matches while they win all upcoming ones.
Based on recent performance, the probability of the Guardians being eliminated this season is quite high. Only an incredible stroke of luck would enable them to advance to the postseason.
As of September 7, 2023, the Guardians have secured 67 victories and suffered 74 losses. In comparison, the division leader, the Minnesota Twins, have 73 victories and 67 losses, putting them six games ahead of the Guardians.